Asia is facing an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures soaring to hazardous levels in countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. This extreme heat is leading to agricultural shortages and significant delays in shipments, exacerbated by disruptions like the Suez Canal blockage. As a result, spot inventories are almost nonexistent, driving prices up across all origins, particularly for commodities like coconut. Looking ahead, the strain on supply is expected to worsen, making proactive planning essential to avoid stockouts.

The current state of the coconut industry in Asia presents a complex web of challenges stemming from various factors, including the disruptive effects of El Niño, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in the petroleum market. These challenges have led to severe shortages in raw coconut supplies, unprecedented price hikes, and significant delays in shipments and production. As we move forward, it is crucial for stakeholders to closely monitor market developments, anticipate further disruptions, and proactively plan their purchasing strategies to mitigate risks. Collaboration and communication among partners will be essential in navigating these turbulent times effectively. We remain committed to supporting our partners and working together to overcome these challenges and ensure the stability and resilience of the coconut industry in the face of adversity.

Diving into the world of nuts, this article explores the recent dynamics in the almond, pecan, hazelnut, and walnut markets, delving into shipment records, regional trends, crop forecasts, and market perspectives to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of these key nut industries.

This week, we anticipate an increase in coconut prices due to a low arrival of raw materials. Unfortunately, this situation is expected to exacerbate further due to the influence of El Niño, leading to anticipated price hikes in the near future. Prices have already increased between USD 70 to 100 per mt (depending on the mill)

Shortages in raw material supply owing to weather persist across all origins. This is further exacerbated by the effects of El Nino in 2023 and it was well known that we would start to see a dwindling in supply in 2024

El Nino continues to threaten Southeast Asian agriculture with a US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report citing a 73 percent likelihood of it reaching historic in December. Indonesia and the Philippines are historically susceptible to the effects of El Nino wherein we will see irregular rainfall patterns, dry conditions, possibilities for draught amongst other weather problems. In addition, the Philippines will be at a heightened risk of more cyclones because of El Nino as well.

This report assesses the negative effects of El Niño on coconut and palm oil crops by drawing insights from recent articles published in Telegraph, ABC News, and The Straits Times. El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures, has been shown to disrupt weather patterns globally, leading to droughts, wildfires, and haze in affected regions. These climatic disturbances significantly impact the growth and yield of coconut and palm oil crops, with potential economic and environmental consequences.

We are currently facing a significant concern related to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is affecting multiple countries in Asia. Reports from various sources highlight the potential for dry weather, water shortages, and drought. This will undoubtedly impact crop supplies for a wide range of agricultural commodities.